Relative DF Attractiveness Matrix for Jharkhand and Mumbra RFPs

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Relative DF Attractiveness Matrix for Jharkhand and Mumbra RFPs

Recently, new opportunities have emerged in Jharkhand and Maharashtra in Power Distribution Franchisee. See our earlier blogs on Mumbra (Maharashtra) and Jharkhand:

pManifold's DF Attractiveness Matrix on RFP data provides a quick study on new areas in Jharkhand & Maharashtra and its comparison with old one's like Nagpur, Jalgaon, Aurangabad, MP's 3 regions, etc. A coloring scheme is used for better visualization for favorable Distribution Franchisee parameters across each attributes.

Some of the key factors favoring Jharkhand bids (based on old RFPs):

Input Energy in Ranchi and Jamshedpur is highest compared to all previous bids ( Approx 1,400+ MUs per year)
HT load in all 3 regions is next highest after Aurangabad (HT customers number ranging around 300 in each region)
Connected Load (in KWs) is highest in Ranchi, followed by Agra, Aurangabad and Jamshedpur in that order
Electricity Sales (LUs) is highest in Jamshedpur, followed by Ranchi, Aurangabad and Agra in that order
AT&C loss is highest for Jamshedpur, 4th ranking for Dhanbad and 5th for Ranchi
Average Billing Rate (ABR) is amongst the lowest, indicating good potential for improvements (in the range of 3.25 Rs./kWh)

Revised RFP of Jharkhand will be released on 20th June, 2012. Last date of bid submission is 10th July for all the 3 cities.

Key factors favoring Shil-Mumbra-Kalwa bids (based on old RFP i.e. Dec 2010):

Geographical Area is smallest when compared with compared with other areas (Approx 63 Sq. Km.)
Consumer Density (No. of customers per Sq. Km.) is highest, while Connected Load Density is 5th ranking with highest in Aurangabad
AT&C loss is highest (54.04%, similar to that of Jamshedpur)
Collection Efficiency is 2nd lowest, indicating good potential for improvements (84%)
The distribution licensee, MSEDCL, is the most experienced with highest number of Input based DFs in the country

The complete process of Shil-Mumbra-Kalwa is through e-tendering and RFP can be downloaded from the following site: http://works.mahadiscom.in/eTender/etender. Last date of RFP procurement is 20th June, 2012.

We wish good turnout and rationale bidding for these new coming DF opportunities. See below pManifold's services for DF turnkey bid advisory including Partner Identification, Technical Due-Diligence, Financial Bid Modeling and Bid Preparation.

Posted by: Kunjan Bagdia @ pManifold

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pManifold's turnkey bid advisory includes following:

Partner identification and realization

Dip stick company's portfolio & strengths mapping, to be leveraged in new DF business
Decision support on which region(s) to bid for
Partnership structuring options identification and evaluation
Search for partners - identification, interactions & introductions
Partnership realization, on mutually agreed terms and conditions

Technical Due Diligence

Option 1: Observation-based DD

Study the technical parameters in the DF area for the estimation of losses, distribution, network metering and understanding the existing distribution network performance based on loading, failures, outages etc.
Technical inputs in existing load & future load growth
Technical inputs on new steps/techniques for the better/optimal usage of the existing distribution network
Technical inputs & techno economic feasibility for the capital investment in the identified distribution network for the following points:

i) Renovation & Strengthening of the network
ii) Meeting the load growth for the next 15 years

Key Opinion Leaders and customers feedback on existing electricity service quality and privatization perception

Option 2: Measurement-based DD

All that included in scope of Option 1
24hr monitoring of 46 parameters for all EHV and most 33kV sub-stations (both inputs and outputs)
Short terms monitoring of 46 parameters for critical 11kV feeders and DTCs

Financial Bid Modeling and Bid Strategy

New and previous ARR and Tariff petition analytics for tariff trends and identifying other regulatory risks
Consolidated Financial model building and scenario analysis to facilitate bid strategy